MDS 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Sint Maarten St Maarten
MDS 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
23 May 2025
The official start of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season is just days away—beginning on June 1 and lasting through November 30. Now is the time to assess your preparedness. The devastation caused in 2017 by Hurricane Irma in St. Maarten and across the northern Leeward Islands serves as a stark reminder of the importance of annual hurricane readiness.
Seasonal Outlook
Based on historical data, an average hurricane season produces approximately 14 named storms, with 7 hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, with winds of 111 mph or greater). But what can we expect for the 2025 season?
Forecasts from multiple reputable agencies suggest an above-normal season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects a 60% chance of above-average activity, predicting:
13 to 19 named storms
6 to 10 hurricanes
3 to 5 major hurricanes
Other institutions, such as Colorado State University and The Weather Channel, have echoed similar predictions, anticipating higher-than-average storm activity.
Contributing Factors to Increased Activity
The expected uptick in storm activity is primarily due to the following conditions:
Above-average sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean, Gulf and Caribbean Sea. Although slightly cooler than last year, these warm waters continue to provide essential fuel for storm development.
ENSO-Neutral Conditions: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain neutral throughout the season. While El Niño typically suppresses hurricane activity and La Niña enhances it, neutral years can still produce very active seasons—especially when paired with other favorable factors such as:
Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic
Low vertical wind shear
Favorable African Easterly Waves
High mid-level atmospheric moisture
However, frequent Saharan dust intrusions, which are difficult to forecast, could potentially suppress storm development.
The Importance of Preparedness
Regardless of the forecast, it is crucial for residents of small islands and coastal areas to prepare every year. A single storm can have devastating consequences, regardless of how many are predicted.
It’s important to remember that you do not need a hurricane for severe impacts to occur. Heavy rainfall from a tropical wave lasting just a few hours can cause flooding and damage. Our island’s geography makes us especially vulnerable, which is why preparedness and timely access to reliable information are vital.
Stay Informed
The Meteorological Department St. Maarten (MDS) will closely monitor all tropical systems throughout the season. When necessary, watches and warnings will be issued via multiple communication channels or by scanning the QR code below: